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The Project Control Framework
This framework sets out how we, together with the Department for Transport, manage and deliver major road improvement projects.
Post Opening Project Evaluation (POPE) of Major Schemes
What is a Major Scheme?
These are road improvements undertaken by the Highways Agency (HA) that cost more than £5 million. Schemes such as bypasses, motorway widening and large junction improvements are included in the Programme of Major Schemes.
What is included in POPE for a major scheme?
The POPE study will look at how much a scheme actually cost (outturn cost) compared to predicted costs. These costs include: construction costs, land, preparation and supervision costs.
The study also calculates the benefits of the scheme and compares this to the benefits which were forecast.
All of the government's NATA objectives are covered in the evaluation. These are: environment, safety, economy, accessibility and integration.
Some elements are looked at in detail for all schemes; for example, the effect on journey times, changes in traffic flows, accident records and the impact on carbon emissions. However, the evaluation approach is flexible and focuses most attention on those issues which were either key objectives or substantial impacts of the scheme in question. The evaluation undertaken for one project could, therefore, be different in emphasis from that undertaken for another project.
When is POPE undertaken?
Studies are undertaken at one year after and five years after opening. The Five Year After report is necessary because some things, such as environmental impacts and accident trends, take time to become apparent. However, some very useful information is available much earlier, so a One Year After report is undertaken to allow lessons to be learnt more quickly.
What schemes have a completed POPE?
A1 Stannington Junction
A1(M) Ferrybridge to Hook Moor
A1(M) Weatherby to Walshford
A1 Willowburn to Denwick Improvement
A2 Bean - Cobham (phase 1)
A2/M2 Cobham to J4 Widening
A2/A282 Dartford Improvement
A5 Nesscliffe bypass
A5 Weeford to Fazeley Improvement
A6 Alvaston
A6 Clapham Bypass
A6 Great Glen Bypass
A6 Rothwell - Desborough Bypass
A6 Rushden & High Ferrers Bypass
A10 Wadesmill, High Cross & Colliers End bypass
A11 Attleborough Bypass Improvements
A11 Roudham Heath to Attleborough
A14 Haughley New Street to Stowmarket Improvement
A14 Rookery Crossroads Grade Separated Junction
A21 Lamberhurst Bypass
A27 Polegate Bypass
A27 Southerham to Beddingham
A30 Bodmin to Indian Queens Improvement
A30 Merrymeet Junction
A38 Dobwalls Bypass
A34 Chieveley/M4 J13 Improvement
A34 Newbury Bypass
A41 Aston Clinton Bypass
A43 M40 - B4031 Duallling (Please see A43 Silverstone Bypass Evaluation below)
A43 Silverstone Bypass
A46 Newark - Lincoln improvement
A47 Thorney Bypass
A63 Melton Grade Separated Junction
A63 Selby Bypass
A64 Colton Lane Grade Separated Junction
A66 Carkin Moor to Scotch Corner Improvements
A66 Greta Bridge to Stephen Bank Improvements
A66 Long Newton Junction
A66 Stainburn & Great Clifton Bypass
A66 Temple Sowerby Bypass and Improvements at Winderwath
A249 Iwade - Queenborough
A419 Commonhead Junction
A421 Great Barford Bypass
A428 Caxton Common to Hardwick Improvement
A500 Basford, Hough, Shavington Bypass
A500 City Road & Stoke Road Junction Improvement
A5117 / A550 Deeside Park Junctions Improvement
A590 High and Low Newton Bypass
A650 Bingley Relief Road
A1033 Hedon Road Improvement
M1 Jct 6a to 10 Widening
M1 Jct 31 to Jct 32 Widening
M4 Jct 18 Eastbound Diverge
M5 Jct 17 to 18A Northbound Climbing Lane
M5 Jcts 19 to 20 Northbound Climbing Lane
M5 Jcts 19 to 20 Southbound Climbing Lane
M6 Toll
M25 Junction 1b - 3
M25 J12-15
M25 Junction 28 / A12 / Brook Street Interchange
M27 Junctions 3 - 4 Widening
M27 Jcts 11-12 Climbing Lanes
M40 J4 Handy Cross Junction
M60 J5-8
M62 Junction 6 Improvement
For schemes were there is no link to the report, please contact us for a copy.
What do the POPE studies show overall?
In addition to reports about individual schemes, every two years a report is produced comparing the findings and identifying trends. The summary and main document of the latest meta report is available to download:
- POPE meta report 2011 - executive summary (PDF 945KB)
- POPE meta report 2011 - main report (PDF 4.7MB)
If you would like a copy of the associated 'daughter documents' please contact us.
A scheme evaluation table has been produced that shows the appraisal (before prediction) and evaluation (after recalculation) figures for all open schemes. This table sets out figures for carbon emissions, traffic levels and accidents.
What is the HA doing about the findings of POPE?
It is important that local communities, local authorities and central Government understand the full impact of proposed schemes. This is why the Department for Transport has a comprehensive appraisal process comparing schemes on a consistent basis. We are constantly working to improve our assessment of all the aspects that feed into scheme appraisal and undertaking a post opening evaluation of each major scheme is part of that process.
The meta report showed that our major schemes gave a positive economic outturn. The majority of schemes accurately predicted opening year environmental impacts, however, there is variation in how accurate our traffic predictions were.
It is not possible to know exactly what will happen when a scheme is opened, nor what would have happened had the scheme not been built, particularly when the opening is a number of years after the assessment was undertaken. Importantly, there is no evidence of any systematic bias.
Schemes which have been evaluated and included in this meta report have been open a number of years. In many cases our modelling methods have changed since the modelling for these schemes was done. In particular, schemes must now either model 'variable demand' (that is traffic generated by a scheme) or demonstrate why variable demand modelling is not necessary.
The DfT has been proactive in trying to improve the way scheme forecasts take account of uncertainties (such as possible, but uncommitted developments nearby) and issued new guidance in April 2009. This guidance is used in all our scheme appraisal calculations (including the greenhouse gas, noise and air quality predictions which are based on traffic modelling), ensuring decision makers take account of the range of possible outcomes that may occur.
The HA seeks to implement schemes which represent good value for money. By undertaking post opening evaluation and openly reporting the findings, the HA and DfT are already making the Programme of Major Schemes transparent to the public.
